Hurricane season

The hurricane season officially began on June 1st and ends on November 30th. I know a lot of you worry about me, especially after Igor paid us a visit in September 2010, so I thought I would share this year’s hurricane predictions.

Forecasts of expected Atlantic hurricane activites are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, both of whom I know reasonably well. They lead Colorado State University’s Atmospheric Sciences team and are considered two of the world’s leading experts at the long-range forecasting of hurricanes.

Klotzbach and Gray on Friday raised their expectations for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season to 13 named storms, just above average. The average since 1981 being 12.1.

5 of those storms are anticipated to become hurricanes (sustained winds of more than 74 mph) and 2 may develop into major systems (sustained winds of 130 mph).This is an increase on their April report because an El Nino pattern that would limit Atlantic storms hasn’t shown signs of forming yet.

The real challenge this year is the uncertainty surrounding El Nino, the warm water phenomenon that tends to hinder hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

The two early named storms of Alberto and Beryl are not supposed to be an indication of an active season. If you are interested the full list of 2012 hurricane names is here and they are on a 6-year revolver unless a name is retired due their destructive nature like Igor.

Predictions are one thing but what really counts is where those 13 tropical cyclones end up. No one will care a jot if they fizzle out in the ocean, but if they hit land, then where and at what speed is all that matters.

Bermuda being the only landmass for 400 miles acts somewhat like a magnet for formative storms but the miss factor is large, at least I hope so anyway because if one can’t predict something then one can always hope….. old Bermudian proverb!